USDINR - Weekly Outlook: June 24-28

Release Time:2019-06-24 03:20

Market Commentary 

Rupee dropped on oil-related buying by nationalised banks, while overseas outflows from local stocks aided. Delayed monsoon, slowdown in domestic economic growth, liquidity crisis in the financial sector and weak demand are all factors that are pressuring markets currently. India’s government is likely to overshoot the budget deficit target previously set for the current fiscal year, three officials have warned, as a slowing economy creates a big shortfall in tax collections and prompts new stimulus plans. New Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents her first budget on July 5, for the fiscal year ending March 2020. It is also the first budget of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term after his government was returned in a landslide election win last month. With inflation in India well within the monetary policy committee’s (MPC) mandated target, it is crucial to give higher importance to faltering economic growth, members said in the minutes of the June meeting. The MPC in June cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, a third straight cut since the start of 2019, while also changing its stance to “accommodative,” after data showed the economy growing at its slowest in more than four years. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 69.415 and below same could see a test of 69.26 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 69.855, a move above could see prices testing 70.14. 

Technical Outlook 

USDINR trading range for the day is 69.27(144) -70.15(143)