USDINR - Weekly Outlook: June 17-21

Release Time:2019-06-17 05:58

Market Commentary 

Rupee dropped on buying by nationalised banks likely on behalf of oil importers amid overseas inflows into local stocks. Investors were wary about the country’s plans to impose higher tariffs on some U.S. goods, amid higher food prices in the domestic market. The greenback retraced its way back to above 97 level and remained steady as investor focus turned to next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meet for further cues on a possible interest rate cut in light of rising risks to trade and global growth. India's wholesale price inflation slowed for the second month in May, data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry showed. The wholesale price index climbed 2.45 percent year-on-year in May, following a 3.07 percent increase in April. The buildup inflation rate in the financial year was 1.08 percent in May compared to 1.72 percent in the same period last year. India’s slowing economic growth is of serious concern and the country needs to urgently cut tax and interest rates to revive the economy. The economy grew 6.6% in the three months to December - the slowest pace in five quarters - and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) said the bigger worry was that domestic consumption was not growing fast enough to offset a weakening global economic environment. The new government should cut corporate and individual taxes, expand a programme of handing 6,000 rupees ($86) a year to poor farmers to boost consumption demand and consider tax concessions for export-oriented manufacturers. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 69.665 and below same could see a test of 69.4675 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 69.9975, a move above could see prices testing 70.1325. 

Technical Outlook 

USDINR trading range for the day is 69.48(144) -70.14(143).