EURUSD - Weekly Outlook: June 10-14

Release Time:2019-06-10 03:39

EURUSD (1.1265) • German Industrial Production fell 1.9% M/M in Apr, a huge disappointment in absolute terms and relative to expectations of a 0.5% drop. This was the biggest 1-month fall in output since 2014 and suggests a tough start for Q2 for the Eurozone economy. Weak international trade – a reduced surplus and a 3.7% plunge in German Exports in the same month – may explain the stuttering German economic machine. French Industrial Production rose a slightly better than expected 0.4% M/M, although Manufacturing was flat. The EUR might need weaker US data to generate more lift intraday. EUR resilience in the face of weak German data suggests spot has some firm underpinning into the end of the week. 

EURUSD short-term technicals: bullish – Maybe. This week’s chop makes it even harder to come down cleanly on one side or the other of the technical divide. On the one hand, Wednesday’s price action signaled a top – via a bearish outside range session. On the other, the EUR reversed higher yesterday to set a marginal new high for the move up and close above 1.1265 – double bottom trigger for 1.1425. Intraday price action appears to be shaping up to deliver another squeeze higher if the EUR cracks 1.1305 intraday. A weekly close above 1.1286 (weekly trend) would be positive. We are leaning towards the positive interpretation of price action.