EURUSD Weekly Outlook Feb 18 - 22

Release Time:2019-02-18 09:30

EURUSD (1.1272) • The Eurozone reported a EUR15.6bn Trade surplus in Dec, little changed from Nov’s upwardly-revised 15.8bn surplus. As expected, Spain is heading for a snap election for April 28th; the ruling Socialist Party remains the leading party in polling but the overall landscape is fractured, with the protest-focussed Podemos party falling back and support for Vox, a new, nationalist group, surging which opens the way for a right-leaning coalition potentially. Spanish bond spreads are marginally wider on the week vs Bunds but movement is very limited. EURUSD is little changed versus Thursday’s levels. We continue to see support for spot in dips ahead of 1.12. 

The range is still valid.1.1200 to 1.1550 is a broad range for  EUR-USD .The day we get a convincing daily and weekly close out of this zone  , we can  expect a big directional movement in the direction of breakout.

EURUSD short-term technicals: neutral – EURUSD is poised to close out last week with a small net loss and while the charts look somewhat heavy for the EUR, the lack of follow through selling after the sharp-ish decline in spot mid-week suggests little appetite to challenge the 1.12 support area. We see intraday support at 1.1250/60. Major support is 1.1180/00. Resistance is 1.1295/00.