USD/INR - Weekly Outlook Feb 18 - 22

Release Time:2019-02-18 09:27

Rupee ended with losses on overseas fund outflows from local stocks, oil importers demand. The dollar recovered after dismal U.S. retail sales and as the market awaited developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. The results of a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and China’s President Xi Jinping could be important for foreign exchange investors. Earlier in the week, markets had cheered U.S. President Donald Trump’s upbeat assessment of the talks but a lack of progress since then has bred a risk-off mood causing declines in the Australian dollar, a proxy for China risk. India’s consumer prices rose at a milder pace than anticipated in January and remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s target for a sixth straight month, strengthening views it could again cut the key interest rate at its next policy review in April. Annual retail inflation in January rose 2.05 percent, its slowest pace since June 2017, government data showed. 

The decline was due to a fall in food prices and smaller increases in fuel costs. Figures showed industrial output growth rose 2.4 percent in December on the year. In a surprise move on Feb. 7, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the benchmark repo rate 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, in its first cut in 18 months, and hinted of more room to cut rates. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 71.28 and below same could see a test of 71.125 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 71.555, a move above could see prices testing 71.675. 

Technical Outlook USDINR trading range for the day is 71.09-71.64. # Rupee ended with losses on overseas fund outflows from local stocks, oil importers demand. RBI Reference Rate for USDINR was at 71.2515.