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USD/INR Weekly Outlook Feb 11 to Feb 15

Release Time:2019-02-12 02:19

Rupee gained on selling by exporters and dollar inflows related to Vodafone-Idea deal. Also, foreign banks were the main sellers on behalf of the exporters. The greenback weakened a little on news U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are unlikely to meet before a March 1 deadline set by their governments to reach a trade deal. Indian bankers say piles of bad debt and the high cost of deposits mean they are unlikely to reduce interest rates on loans by as much as the central bank cut its key lending rate in a bid to spur growth. 

The reluctance of bankers to pass on all of Thursday’s surprising 25 basis point rate cut is a potential blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which hopes lower lending rates will lift growth and job creation ahead of general elections due by May. Making more credit available more cheaply is vital for Modi, who wants to please businesses, farmers and individual borrowers. Four senior public and private sector bankers told that they might only cut lending rates by 5-10 basis points. A move of that size would have a negligible impact in boosting credit, or in reducing refinancing costs. The greenback remained subdued against major peers after the increase in initial jobless claims. US Initial Jobless Claims released data by US department of labour increased to 234000 compared to 221000 expected by market participants. Technically now USDINR is getting support at 71.2375 and below same could see a test of 70.9875 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 71.65, a move above could see prices testing 71.8125. 

Technical Outlook; USDINR trading range for the day is 70.97(140.90)-71.79.(139.29).