EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: December 31 - 04 Jan 2019

Release Time:2018-12-31 08:26

EURUSD (1.1464) • EURUSD remains better supported overall, with the EUR ignoring softer German regional inflation data earlier—pointing to a dip in the national CPI report at 8.00ET. Spanish CPI data fell 0.5% M/M—well ahead of expectations—but the annual pace of inflation picked up to 1.6% (from 1.2%). Base effects and lower energy prices perhaps account for some of the softness in the data.

EURUSD short-term technicals: neutral/bullish—We continue to think the technical outlook is improving somewhat for the EUR at least, with the market holding support defined by the medium-term moving average signals on the daily chart (40-day MA at 1.1364). We still rather think that the EUR needs to extend through the upper 1.14s to really build any sort of “real” momentum but we do note that trend signals (DMI oscillators) are tilting in the EUR’s favour on the intraday and daily studies. A push on to the 1.16/1.17 area may develop.