EUR USD Weekly Outlook: November 19 - 23

Release Time:2018-11-19 02:24

EURUSD (1.1335) • EURUSD remains somewhat better supported above 1.13 but has traded off highs reached earlier in the session. Eurozone CPI data for Oct was confirmed as +0.2% M/M and +2.2% Y/Y. Germany reported a pick-up in Wholesale Prices (+4.0% Y/Y) while Italy posted better Industrial Sales but softer Industrial Orders for Sep. ECB President Draghi expressed confidence in the Eurozone economy continuing to grow, suggesting while economic momentum might naturally “mature”, there was no reason to fear an “abrupt” slowdown.

EURUSD short-term technicals: neutral – EURUSD is effectively unchanged on the week at writing following the grind higher from the low near 1.12 reached Monday. EUR gains have run into good selling pressure on strength all week but the rebound has persisted. Intraday patterns look a little soft, with Eur gains to the upper 1.13s again pulling out selling interest overnight. A minor high is being signaled on the intraday chart around 1.1360/65 but we think 1.1305/10 represents good support for the EUR and downside risks only really increase intraday below 1.1275. A close at or near current levels for the week would be potentially positive (weekly “doji” candle, suggesting the sell-off in the EUR is stalling).