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USDINR October 15 - 19 Outlook

Release Time:2018-10-15 02:03

The rupee ended up 0.8% at 73.56 to a dollar, against 74.12 at previous close and well off an intraday lifetime low of 74.4850. The day also marked the rupee's largest single-session gain since Sep. 19 on the back of gains tracking a weak greenback following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The Indian rupee posted its first weekly rise in seven weeks against the dollar, underpinned by a corresponding decline in global crude oil prices and on anticipation of further steps from authorities to halt the local currency's slump and limit the country's widening current account deficit. The rupee has depreciated over 15% against the dollar so far in 2018, making it the worst performing Asian currency. The fall has come despite a slew of measures by authorities to spur foreign inflows. India's foreign exchange reserves slipped below the $400-billion mark for the first time in four weeks, falling to $399.61 billion as of the week ended Oct. 5, against last week's $400.50 billion. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Friday he isn't worried about China selling its stockpile of U.S. Treasurys in retaliation over trade because there's plenty of demand for U.S. government bonds. Some have speculated that China could hit back at the U.S. in a far more significant way: selling a huge chunk of the more than $1 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds it holds.

Technical Outlook

USDINR is expected to trade with positive bias with buying recommended at lower levels. It has resistance at 74.10 (134.77) while support is at 73.80 (135.31)followed by 73.50(135.86) mark.