EURUSD October 8 - 12 Outlook

Release Time:2018-10-08 02:06

EURUSD (1.1507) • EUR is quietly consolidating in a tight range around 1.15, trading just above Thursday’s multi-week low. Sentiment remains dominant as market participants reassess the Italian government’s growth projections. BTPs are once again selling off and the Bund spread is once again widening. Fundamental releases have provided a modest offset. Germany released stronger than expected factory orders and PPI data. EUR’s near-term path hinges on the U.S. payrolls release and its impact on the broader tone. 

EURUSD short-term technicals: bearish-neutral—bearish trend and momentum indicators are softening. EUR is showing signs of stabilization around the 61.8% retracement (1.1497) of its August-September rally. The 1.15 level is therefore critical and weakness from current levels would likely deliver a full retracement back to the August lows around 1.13. Near-term resistance levels include 1.1550 and 1.1620 (38.2% retracement).