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USDINR October 1 - 5 Outlook

Release Time:2018-10-01 02:13

The rupee ended higher at 72.48 a dollar in Mumbai, against 72.59 at previous close. It swung between gains and losses intraday, as brief recovery in local shares and dollar sales by foreign banks helped offset losses tracking an overnight gain in the dollar index after upbeat U.S. data. The Indian rupee posted its biggest quarterly fall since quarter ended June 2013, hurt by foreign fund outflows and a rout in emerging market currencies amid escalating global trade war and surging crude oil prices. Soaring oil prices ahead of the upcoming U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil imports has raised fears of supply-side complications. As recently as yesterday, however, reports cited sources familiar with Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries policy saying Saudi Arabia and other producers discussed a possible output hike of about 500,000 barrels a day among the OPEC and nonOPEC allies. Investors now await India's monetary policy this week, where the authority may raise interest rates by a quarter percentages to support the rupee, even as retail inflation remains at 10-month low.

Technical Outlook

USDINR is expected to trade with positive bias with buying recommended at lower levels. It has resistance at 73.05(136.89) while support is at 72.65(137.64) followed by 72.50 (137.93) mark.