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EURUSD October 1 - 5 Outlook

Release Time:2018-10-01 02:12

EURUSD (1.1588) • Eurozone CPI rose 2.1%, as expected in Sep, but core price growth undershot expectations, rising 0.9% Y/Y against calls for a 1.1% gain from the prior month’s 1.0% Y/Y growth. The slowdown in core CPI may not be too much of a worry right now, considering that ECB President Draghi has expressed optimism that price growth will show more traction in the future but clearly suggest the ECB is under no pressure to hurry its move away from super policy accommodation. The EUR largely ignored the data anyway amid market concerns over Italy.

EURUSD short-term technicals: Bearish—Broadly speaking, the EUR has had a shocker last week, sliding from 1.18 to below 1.16. The weekly chart looks ugly (bearish) and suggests another false start for markets looking for a break from the recent range. Intraday though, the EUR may be finding some traction below 1.16 on bargain hunting. A low close on the week suggests that more pressure is likely to emerge in the week or two, however, and we may well se spot test the low 1.15s either today or early this week. Resistance is 1.1610.