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GBPUSD October 1 - 5 Outlook

Release Time:2018-10-01 02:12

GBPUSD (1.3018) • UK GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, in line with preliminary trends, but the Y/Y measure was clipped back slightly to 1.2% (from the 1.3% preliminary report). The Q2 Current Account gap widened to –GBP20.3bn, however, the widest in a year, and well beyond expectations of a widening to –19.4bn. The current account gap is unhelpful on the face of it but the broader trend in the shortfall is showing a modestly narrowing trend relative to UK GDP. The biggest risk for the GBP remains Brexit and all eyes here will be on the maneuvering at the Conservative Party conference, starting Monday.

GBPUSD short-term technicals: Bearish—Cable may be finding some support intraday in the 1.3030/40 area as our session gets underway but the broader trend in the pound looks weak overall, with another low close on the week reaffirming the recent peak above 1.33. We see resistance at 1.3080/00.